Your first time here? Welcome, I'm glad you've dropped in.... David Soul (aka Bricoleur)

Address to the 2nd Cwarel Isaf Institute Conference

Allenna Leonard, Ph.D.

So, the first tool I’d pack if I had the chance to outfit Obama’s expedition – or those of his counterparts in Europe– or elsewhere – would be the Viable System Model, along with the conceptual apparatus that underpins it and the information handling tools that accompany it. This was what was available to Project Cybersyn. This is what just might make the difference between struggling through tough times and collapse. <article>

Tags: crisis, VSM

Vsm Self made image by Nick Green
Image via Wikipedia


Teaching the Viable Systems Model to people without an organizational setting to frame the exercise can be challenging. It is not easy to introduce new ideas and terms in the abstract and help people gain facility in their application without examples. Case studies are helpful here but there is another alternative… <article>

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Tags: model, teaching, VSM

2
Jun

Forecasting human behaviour carries big risks

   Posted by: Bricoleur   in Theories & Models

Computerised forecasting techniques are certainly useful for stores, but flawed when it comes to complex human issues…..

“You can get a good model statistically that fits well for a group but it doesn’t predict well for individuals, ” he says (David Cooke, professor of forensic clinical psychology at the Douglas Inch Centre and Glasgow Caledonian University). “

Tags: Clinical psychology, Cognitive Science, Human behavior, law, model, Psychology, Social Sciences

This e-learning site focuses on a critical, but often neglected skill for business, communication, and engineering students, namely visual literacy, or the ability to evaluate, apply, or create conceptual visual representations.

An interesting interactive diagram on the site is A Periodic Table of Visualization Methods – as you mouse over each entry an example opens in a pop up window !

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Tags: E-learning, Information visualization, learning, Visual literacy, visualization

A Bayesian Approach to Short-Term Forecasting, P. J. Harrison and C. F. Stevens, Operational Research Quarterly (1970-1977), Vol. 22, No. 4 (Dec., 1971), pp. 341-362 (article consists of 22 pages); Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals on behalf of the Operational Research Society available through JSTOR: Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3008187

Abstract

A new approach to short-term forecasting is described, based on Bayesian principles. The performance of conventional systems is often upset by the occurrence of changes in trend and slope, or transients. In this approach events of this nature are modelled explicitly, and successive data points are used to calculate the posterior probabilities of such events at each instant of time. The system produces not only single-figure forecasts but distributions of trend and slope values which are relevant to subsequent decisions based on forecasts.

Tags: Bayesian Analysis, cybernetics, cybersyn, Operations research, Statistics, VSM

30
May

Cybernetics: History and Biographies

   Posted by: Bricoleur   in cybernetics

This entry is part 2 of 2 in the series Cybernetics - A Start Here Guide

[dhcs: May 2010 | note that this is essentially a mirror of a Squidoo Lens constructed while I was involved in their beta program.  It has not been kept up-to date since early 2006; with my recent  “rediscovery” of it I will be bringing it up to date here, refreshing it, including fixing or striking any connections that have suffered from “web link rot” and perhaps this refurbishment might even lead to reflecting it back to its original site to see if it can fulfill the original design intent….)

Tags: cybernetics

29
May

Cybernetics Landmarks – a Travellers Guide

   Posted by: Bricoleur   in cybernetics

This entry is part 3 of 2 in the series Cybernetics - A Start Here Guide

being an updated version of the…

Cybernetics – start here guide

by dsoul on Thu 12 Jan 2006 08:49 PM PST  |

[dhcs: May 28, 2010 | please note: this piece was originally put in place for a predecessor weblog (http://cep.weblogger.com) as “Cybernetics – start here guide” and the original  page was still  under construction at the time that this new website was started…. in this new incarnation it is still,  unfortunately,  essentially a collection of “signposts”  rather than a travel guide, however annotations will be added over time to turn it into (a)  a true guide to the field and then onwards towards (b) the foundation of a “learning machine”The original concept of  the ‘start here guide’ will be replaced by a series of new posts on this site over the next several weeks]

Tags: autopoiesis, BAM, Business intelligence, CEP, Complex Event Processing, cybernetic, cybernetics, error, freedom, intelligence, management, Systems, Viable System Model, VSM

25
May

Economic Scene: Four Ways to a…

   Posted by: dhcsoul   in Odds & Sods

Economic Scene: Four Ways to a Better Financial Bill – http://bit.ly/b9jCy6

25
May

London outside of ‘top 30 citi…

   Posted by: dhcsoul   in Odds & Sods

London outside of ‘top 30 cities’ – http://bit.ly/dB3JuY [Vancouver inside…]

24
May

Buridan’s ass

   Posted by: Bricoleur   in Odds & Sods

buridan's ass
Image by anjan58 via Flickr

“If the world were merely seductive, that would be easy. If it were merely challenging, that would be no problem. But I arise in the morning torn between a desire to improve the world and a desire to enjoy the world. This makes it hard to plan the day.”— E.B. White

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Tags: Buridan's ass, paradox, philosophy, planning, quotes