Your first time here? Welcome, I'm glad you've dropped in.... David Soul (aka Bricoleur)

A reading of a pair of articles from Technology
is instructive about how “received doctrine” can become established
fact…and even in the face of disconfirming evidence remain “THE
TRUTH” …. there truly are none so blind as those that will not see
….and although man is likely contributing to global warming, simply
wrong science will not help us tackle and resolve the real problem….
Complex Systems are hard to study… but error is ugly… especially in science.

Medieval Global Warming By Richard Muller December 17, 2003
“Six hundred years ago, the world was warm. Or
maybe it wasn't. What's the truth? Beware. This question has recently
been elevated from a mere scientific quandary to one of the hot (or
cold) issues of modern politics. Argue in favor of the wrong answer and
you risk being branded a liberal alarmist or a conservative
Neanderthal. Or you might lose your job. Six editors recently resigned
from the journal Climate Research because of this issue.
Their crime: publishing the article “Proxy Climatic and Environmental
Changes of the Past 1,000 Years,” by W. Soon and S. Baliunas of the
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.” …..

And a follow up:

Global Warming Bombshell By Richard Muller October 15, 2004
“Progress in science is sometimes made by great
discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we
believed to be true isn’t. When solving a jigsaw puzzle, the solution
can sometimes be stymied by the fact that a wrong piece has been wedged
in a key place.

In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the
latest wrong piece may be the “hockey stick,” the famous plot (shown
below), published by University of Massachusetts geoscientist Michael
Mann and colleagues. This plot purports to show that we are now
experiencing the warmest climate in a millennium, and that the earth,
after remaining cool for centuries during the medieval era, suddenly
began to heat up about 100 years ago–just at the time that the burning
of coal and oil led to an increase in atmospheric levels of carbon

I talked about this at length in my December 2003 column.
Unfortunately, discussion of this plot has been so polluted by
political and activist frenzy that it is hard to dig into it to reach
the science. My earlier column was largely a plea to let science
proceed unmolested. Unfortunately, the very importance of the issue has
made careful science difficult to pursue.” ….

originally Posted to by David Soul on 12/29/04; 10:37:09 PM
in the Errors section.


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Tags: CEP, climate, error, learning, politics, science, Systems

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